What to know for NFL Week 7: Score picks, bold predictions, fantasy tips, key stats for every game

What to know for NFL Week 7: Score picks, bold predictions, fantasy tips, key stats for every game

The Week 7 NFL schedule for the 2023 season is stacked with great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.

Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Analytics writer Seth Walder picks out each matchup’s biggest X factor, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody hands out helpful fantasy football intel. Finally, Walder and Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let’s get into the full Week 7 slate, including the surging Lions playing in Baltimore and a Dolphins-Eagles showdown on Sunday night. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the 49ers and the Vikings on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)

Jump to a matchup:

Thursday: JAX 31, NO 24

1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: BAL -3 (43)

Storyline to watch: In one of the marquee matchups of the week, Lions QB Jared Goff has the NFL’s third-best QBR (81.5) when not pressured, throwing nine touchdown passes and two interceptions. The Ravens are tied for the league lead with 24 sacks, getting a sack from an NFL-high 11 players. — Jamison Hensley

Bold prediction: Lions WR Jameson Williams will score his second 35-plus-yard touchdown reception, and the Lions will start 6-1 for the first time since 1956. Williams brings a different dimension to the already high-powered Detroit offense and scored a 45-yard TD at Tampa Bay last week in his second game back after serving a four-game suspension for violating the NFL’s gambling policy. “I would say my confidence was already out the roof because that’s how I think about myself. I think I’m the best,” Williams said of his TD catch. “So as a boost, it maybe sent me from 100 to 150.” — Eric Woodyard

Stat to know: Lamar Jackson is 15-1 in his career against NFC opponents (7-0 at home), with the only loss coming last season at the Giants. His .938 win percentage vs. the NFC is the best by any QB against the opposing conference since the 1970 merger (min. five starts).



Is Mark Andrews in line for a good fantasy game vs. Lions?

Eric Karabell offers some numbers on Mark Andrews’ nice fantasy season ahead of a matchup vs. the Lions.

Matchup X factor: Ravens right tackle Morgan Moses. He’ll be charged with stopping Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson on Sunday. If he can do that, the task for Jackson and Baltimore’s offense gets a heck of a lot easier. Even with Hutchinson, the Lions rank 31st in pass rush win rate, in part because Hutchinson tends to win later in the rush. — Walder

Injuries: Lions | Ravens

What to know for fantasy: The Ravens’ defense has given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. In addition, Baltimore’s defense has allowed only 5.8 yards per reception, a league low, which could position Lions tight end Sam LaPorta and running back Jahmyr Gibbs for a ton of catches. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Lions are 7-1 against the spread (ATS) in their past eight road games. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Ravens 24, Lions 23
Walder’s pick: Ravens 27, Lions 24
FPI prediction: BAL, 53.9% (by an average of 1.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Lions have bigger goals after 5-1 startJackson, Ravens need to fix red zone problemsRB Montgomery likely out ‘for a little bit’

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: CLE -3 (41)

Storyline to watch: Both of Cleveland’s possible starting QBs are very familiar to the Colts. Deshaun Watson (whose status is questionable because of a shoulder injury) played six games against Indy while with AFC South rival Houston, throwing eight touchdown passes and rushing for two more scores while completing 70% of his attempts. His backup, PJ Walker, entered the league with Indianapolis in 2017 and spent parts of three seasons bouncing between the Colts’ practice squad and active roster before moving on in 2019. — Stephen Holder

Bold prediction: The Browns’ defense will outscore the Colts’ offense in another dominant performance. Cleveland is top five defensively in almost every category but turnovers. That changes in Indy, as the Browns will force the Colts into multiple miscues. — Jake Trotter

Stat to know: The Browns have allowed 1,002 yards this season, the third fewest through a team’s first five games since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.

Matchup X factor: Colts running backs Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss. Quarterback Gardner Minshew is not going to be able to pass the ball on the Browns, plain and simple. This game will come down to the Colts’ defense and if the Indianapolis running game can generate enough points on the ground. — Walder

Injuries: Browns | Colts

What to know for fantasy: There are 11 teams this season that have allowed more than 1,000 yards to receivers. The Colts are one of them. Browns receiver Amari Cooper has had eight or more targets and scored 15 or more fantasy points in three of his past four games, and should continue to be productive whether Watson or Walker is under center. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Browns are favored in a road game for the second time this season, matching their total from each of the past two seasons. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Browns 28, Colts 14
Walder’s pick: Browns 23, Colts 10
FPI prediction: CLE, 60% (by an average of 3.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Watson (shoulder injury) returns to practice, throwsHow Luck’s injury influenced Richardson‘s treatmentOral history of how the Browns shocked the 5-0 49ers

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: BUF -8.5 (40)

Storyline to watch: The Bills’ 13 takeaways are tied for the second most in the NFL, while the Patriots’ 11 giveaways are tied for the third most. “Ball security is a top priority for us this week,” New England coach Bill Belichick said. The Patriots have just three takeaways on the season, as their minus-8 turnover differential is tied for last in the NFL. The Bills are tied for 10th with a plus-4 turnover differential. — Mike Reiss

Bold prediction: The Bills’ defense will hold the Patriots to seven points or fewer and grab a fifth straight win over the Patriots. New England is averaging 12 points scored per game (second fewest) and ranks last in points per drive (1.0), while the Bills have held opponents to 14.8 points per game (third fewest). Also, the Bills’ previous four wins over New England have each been by double digits. — Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: Bills quarterback Josh Allen has made a habit of tearing up the Patriots at Gillette Stadium. In five career road starts at New England, Allen has thrown 12 touchdown passes and two interceptions, and posted an 83 Total QBR. That’s the third-highest road QBR by any QB against a single opponent since 2006 (when the metric began).

Matchup X factor: Patriots cornerbacks Jonathan Jones and J.C. Jackson. New England’s only prayer is to slow down the Buffalo passing attack and keep this a low-scoring game. The Giants showed last week it can be done, but it’s going to take a strong performance from the Patriots’ secondary. — Walder

Injuries: Bills | Patriots

What to know for fantasy: The only team that allows a higher rushing yards per carry than the Bills (5.4) is the Broncos (5.6). With the Patriots’ offensive line ranked eighth in run block win rate and getting healthier, New England’s running game could have success against Buffalo. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: New England has failed to cover in nine straight games as an underdog, tied for the second-longest ATS losing streak as an underdog in the Super Bowl era. The Rams went 11 consecutive games as an underdog without covering spanning the 1995-96 seasons. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Bills 31, Patriots 17
Walder’s pick: Bills 27, Patriots 13
FPI prediction: BUF, 82.3% (by an average of 12.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Allen has ‘no concern’ over shoulder injury1-5 Patriots’ morale being tested, but players are focused on improvingCould Bills spreading the ball more lead to a more consistent offense?

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: WSH -2.5 (37.5)

Storyline to watch: The Commanders are the one NFC East team the Giants have handled in recent years. In fact, New York’s only division win (and tie) last season came against Washington. Over the past five-plus seasons, the Giants are 9-22-1 against the NFC East, including the postseason. Six of those nine wins have come against Washington. — Jordan Raanan

Bold prediction: A Commanders receiver will surpass 100 yards for the first time this season. Terry McLaurin has topped 100 yards three times in seven career games vs. New York, including once last season. Jahan Dotson‘s lone 100-yard game in his two-year career occurred against the Giants in Week 15 last season. The Giants rank last in yards after the catch gained by opposing receivers and are 20th in yards gained per catch. — John Keim

Stat to know: The Giants have gone three straight games without an offensive touchdown, their longest streak since 1976 (four straight). No team has gone four straight games without an offensive touchdown since the 2008 Browns.



Why the over could be a safe bet for Commanders-Giants

Tyler Fulghum is expecting the Commanders and Giants to put plenty of points on the scoreboard in their NFC East showdown in Week 7.

Matchup X factor: Commanders edge rusher Montez Sweat. I was surprised to see Sweat has just an 8% pass rush win rate at edge, which ranks 50th out of 55 qualifiers. He has a good matchup against Giants tackle Evan Neal and should be able to disrupt the passing game. — Walder

Injuries: Commanders | Giants

What to know for fantasy: The Giants’ defense allows the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs, which bodes well for Brian Robinson Jr. on Sunday. In every game this season in which he has had 12 or more touches, Robinson has scored 13 or more fantasy points. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: In each of the past six matchups between the Commanders and Giants in New York, the under has hit. Plus, the under has hit in 17 of the past 20 meetings between these two teams when the Giants have hosted. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Commanders 24, Giants 20
Walder’s pick: Giants 19, Commanders 16
FPI prediction: WSH, 61.4% (by an average of 4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Commanders look to build on big plays that ended losing streakPugh goes from ‘couch’ to Giants’ active roster in two weeks

1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: TB -2.5 (37)

Storyline to watch: Both teams are coming off losses, with Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder throwing three interceptions against the Commanders last week and the Bucs failing to force a turnover on defense or score a touchdown on offense for the first time this season against the Lions. But after the Saints’ loss Thursday, the winner of this NFC South matchup will end Week 7 atop the division. — Jenna Laine

Bold prediction: Buccaneers receiver Mike Evans will have more than 75 yards and a score. Evans has 10 touchdowns in 16 games against Atlanta in his career, and he will add another to his total Sunday after scoring in only one game (albeit two touchdowns) over the past six times he has played against the Falcons. — Michael Rothstein

Stat to know: The Buccaneers’ plus-6 turnover margin is tied for third best in the NFL this season, while the Falcons’ minus-6 turnover margin is tied for fifth worst (minus-8 over the past three games).

Matchup X factor: Falcons safety Jessie Bates III. With three interceptions and two forced fumbles, Bates has been an impact addition for Atlanta’s defense. The Bucs’ passing game is much better than their ground game, so stopping Tampa Bay’s aerial attack has to be the Falcons’ defensive focus. — Walder

Injuries: Falcons | Buccaneers

What to know for fantasy: The Buccaneers rank second in the league with a 41.0% blitz rate. Ridder struggles under pressure, and the Falcons’ offensive line ranks 24th in pass block win rate. This season, Ridder’s completion percentage is only 52%, and his passer rating drops to 67.3 when under pressure. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Falcons have failed to cover in five straight games, their longest streak since 2019. The last time they failed to cover in six consecutive games was 2015 (nine straight). It is also the longest active streak without covering among all teams. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 24, Falcons 17
Walder’s pick: Falcons 23, Buccaneers 19
FPI prediction: TB, 52.6% (by an average of 1 points)

Matchup must-reads: What’s wrong with the Falcons’ run game?Mayfield critical of Buccaneers’ offense, takes blame

1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: LV -2.5 (37.5)

Storyline to watch: Both teams’ starting quarterbacks are dealing with injuries. Bears quarterback Justin Fields (thumb) was classified as doubtful against the Raiders on Monday and has not practiced this week. Neither has the Raiders’ Jimmy Garoppolo, who has a back injury that has kept him out of practice and will keep him sidelined in Week 7. Undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent could get the start for the Bears. For Vegas, it’s either rookie Aidan O’Connell or veteran Brian Hoyer. — Courtney Cronin

Bold prediction: Rookie edge rusher Tyree Wilson will pick up his first career sack. True, Wilson has yet to record a QB hit and has only six pressures to go with a pass rush win rate of 5.6%, but the Bears have already given up 25 sacks, third most in the NFL. And Chicago will likely be starting an undrafted rookie QB who might hold the ball a bit longer than he should. — Paul Gutierrez

Stat to know: Bagent will be the first quarterback from a Division II school to start an NFL game since Jon Kitna and Todd Bouman both did so in 2010.



Should Davante Adams get the ball more?

Damien Woody and Dan Orlovsky discuss whether Davante Adams should be more of a focal point in the Raiders’ offense.

Matchup X factor: Raiders running back Josh Jacobs and the Las Vegas running game. This unit ranks last in expected points added per designed carry, and Jacobs has recorded minus-52 rush yards over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Just an average rushing game should help beat the Bears. — Walder

Injuries: Raiders | Bears

What to know for fantasy: The Bears have allowed 7.4 yards per passing play. You should have Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers in your fantasy lineup regardless who’s playing quarterback for the Raiders. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Bears are 5-1 with overs this season, the best of any team. On the flip side, the Raiders are 5-1 with unders. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Raiders 27, Bears 13
Walder’s pick: Bears 20, Raiders 17
FPI prediction: CHI, 55.7% (by an average of 2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Adams: My purpose on Raiders is to influence gameBears’ Bagent to complete journey from D-II QB to NFL starter

4:05 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: LAR -3 (42.5)

Storyline to watch: The Steelers are averaging 15.8 points per game this season, which ranks 30th in the NFL and is their second-lowest mark through five games under Mike Tomlin. Do they have a chance to right the ship in Los Angeles? The young Rams defense has shown promise, including a second-half shutout against the Cardinals last week, but ranks 18th in the NFL in DVOA. — Sarah Barshop

Bold prediction: Steelers safety Minkah Fitzpatrick will get his first interception of the season. Down their top two running backs, the Rams will rely even more on their prolific passing offense, one that ranks third in the league with 1,677 passing yards and is even more explosive with the return of receiver Cooper Kupp to complement rookie breakout Puka Nacua. Fitzpatrick hasn’t been in position to make many plays on the ball this season, but Steelers defensive coordinator Teryl Austin credited the “law of averages” in explaining Fitzpatrick’s lack of splash plays. — Brooke Pryor

Stat to know: The Steelers’ offensive problems go well beyond gaining yards, as Pittsburgh’s 29% red zone touchdown percentage this season is its worst through five games since 2001 (20%).

Matchup X factor: Rams right tackle Rob Havenstein. The best units in this game are the Rams’ passing attack and the Steelers’ pass defense. The quickest way for Pittsburgh to win that battle is for Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt to get to Rams QB Matthew Stafford, and Havenstein — who ranks only 44th out of 69 tackles in pass block win rate (85%) — will be the one charged with stopping Watt. — Walder

Injuries: Steelers | Rams

What to know for fantasy: The Rams rank fourth in yards per completion (11.2) and second in passing first downs per game (13.7). Receivers Kupp and Nacua remain must starts. The Steelers’ defense gives up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Tomlin is 44-40 outright in his coaching career as an underdog. He is the only head coach in the Super Bowl era to have a winning record as an underdog among coaches who have been an underdog in more than 50 games. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Rams 28, Steelers 20
Walder’s pick: Rams 30, Steelers 13
FPI prediction: LAR, 58.3% (by an average of 2.9 points)

Matchup must-reads: What do we know about Pickett after 17 starts as a Steeler?McVay says his future son ‘knows better’ than to be born on game dayRB Williams expected to miss multiple games

4:05 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: SEA -7 (44.5)

Storyline to watch: The Cardinals on Wednesday designated quarterback Kyler Murray to return from the physically unable to perform list, allowing the quarterback to practice for the first time since he tore an ACL in December. Murray won’t be ready to play Sunday, so Joshua Dobbs will remain Arizona’s starter. He’ll face a resurgent Seattle defense that held Joe Burrow and the Bengals to only 185 passing yards in Week 6 and is allowing a league-best 3.2 yards per carry. — Brady Henderson

Bold prediction: Dobbs will throw for 300 yards and lead the Cardinals with 100 rushing yards. With Dobbs’ days as a starter winding down, he’ll show he’s capable of being a starter for another team. Seattle has given up an average of 257.6 passing yards per game this season. Though the Seahawks have improved recently on defense, they did give up more than 300 yards passing to their first three opponents. Arizona will be the fourth to go 300-plus on Seattle. — Josh Weinfuss

Stat to know: Geno Smith‘s 75% competition percentage on play-action since the start of 2022 is second best in the NFL, and his 11 passing touchdowns off play-action rank seventh in the NFL over that span. The Cardinals’ defense has allowed a 72% competition percentage off play-action since 2022 (second worst in the NFL).

Matchup X factor: Cardinals cornerback Marco Wilson. He has allowed 2.3 yards per coverage snap this season, fifth most among cornerbacks with at least 100 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Arizona needs more from him if it’s going to hang with Seattle. — Walder

Injuries: Cardinals | Seahawks

What to know for fantasy: It is a tie between the Seahawks’ and Chargers’ defenses for the most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers this year, which bodes well for Arizona receiver Marquise Brown. Brown caught only four of 11 targets in Week 6 against the Rams and finished with 7.4 fantasy points, but he averaged more than 16 points in his previous four games. Brown and fellow receiver Michael Wilson should have success Sunday. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Cardinals are an underdog for the 15th straight game, the longest active streak in the NFL. It is also the longest streak for the Cardinals since they were an underdog in 31 consecutive games spanning 2002-04. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Seahawks 24, Cardinals 21
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 34, Cardinals 20
FPI prediction: SEA, 79.6% (by an average of 11.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Cardinals’ Murray, Baker back at practiceSeahawks’ Metcalf on penalties: ‘Not going to change who I am’‘It’s very frustrating’: Red zone woes holding Cardinals back

4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: GB -1 (45)

Storyline to watch: Broncos coach Sean Payton has said a quality run game is in the team’s “DNA,” but he has also said he needs to be more patient and actually call games that way. And that’s something to keep an eye on, given the occasional leakiness of the Packers’ run defense. The Broncos’ running backs had just 19 and 15 carries in losses to the Chiefs and Jets, respectively, over the past two games, despite having the No. 3 run block win rate in the NFL (74.2%). The Packers are 28th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game and have allowed more than 200 yards on the ground twice already this season. — Jeff Legwold

Bold prediction: The Packers will find the end zone on their first possession of the game, ending a three-game streak of being held to three points or fewer in the first half. No Packers team has been held to three or fewer first-half points in four straight games since December 1990, and no NFL team has done that since 2021. Coach Matt LaFleur had a bye week to come up with something different for his opening script, and remember, this is a Denver team that has allowed 30 or more points in three games this season. — Rob Demovsky

Stat to know: Jordan Love has thrown one touchdown pass and five interceptions in his past two games (both Green Bay losses). He is the first Packers QB to throw multiple interceptions in back-to-back games since Brett Hundley in December 2017. The last to throw multiple interceptions in three straight games was Brett Favre in 2005.

Matchup X factor: Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson. Wilson actually started solid this season, but his QBR has gone down each week — ending with just a 9.8 in last week’s loss to the Chiefs. He has to get back to early-season form if Denver is going to have a chance. — Walder

Injuries: Packers | Broncos

What to know for fantasy: Wide receivers have scored the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game against the Packers’ defense. Managers looking to start Wilson at QB and Jerry Jeudy or Courtland Sutton at WR this week should temper their expectations. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Based on the current spread, the Packers are favored for the first time this season. They were one of five teams that weren’t favored in the first six weeks, along with the Colts, Cardinals, Jets and Panthers. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Packers 31, Broncos 17
Walder’s pick: Packers 26, Broncos 24
FPI prediction: GB, 56.8% (by an average of 2.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Jones hopes to spark Packers’ struggling offenseCan Wilson turn his season around?

4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: KC -5.5 (48)

Storyline to watch: Expect a close game decided by less than a touchdown because that’s what this rivalry has become. Five of the past six games between the Chiefs and Chargers have been decided by six points or fewer, with two ending in overtime. The outlier was a 38-21 blowout win for the Chargers in the final game of the 2020 season when the Chiefs rested their key players after securing the top playoff seed. All five of L.A.’s games this season have been decided by seven points or fewer, and it would be an upset if this game deviated from the recent Chiefs-Chargers pattern. — Adam Teicher

Bold prediction: Kansas City will sack quarterback Justin Herbert at least three times. Herbert and the Chargers’ offense haven’t looked like themselves their past two games, starting with a Week 4 matchup against the Raiders that included career lows in completions and passing yards for Herbert along with a fractured left finger. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Cowboys pressured Herbert on 47.6% of his dropbacks in Week 6, the highest rate of pressure he has faced this season. Kansas City’s defense is 12th in the league with 17 sacks and could take advantage of a struggling offensive line and an injured quarterback. — Kris Rhim

Stat to know: Arguably no two QBs have been better on the move or when pressured since the start of the 2020 season than Patrick Mahomes and Herbert. They both rank top five in QBR under pressure, outside the pocket and when blitzed over that span.

Matchup X factor: Chiefs wide receivers Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, Rashee Rice, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman or Justyn Ross. Mahomes just needs one of these guys to step up as a second receiving option behind tight end Travis Kelce to kick the Kansas City offense into gear. — Walder

Injuries: Chargers | Chiefs

What to know for fantasy: The Chargers’ secondary has issues, allowing the most passing yards per game in the NFL. The Chargers’ defense also leads the league in third-down penalties, which is good news for fantasy managers who have Chiefs in their fantasy lineups. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: This is Mahomes’ 53rd home start, including playoffs, and the 52nd in which the Chiefs were favored. The lone exception came last season in a loss to the Bills. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Chiefs 31, Chargers 27
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 28, Chargers 21
FPI prediction: KC, 68.5% (by an average of 6.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Herbert again struggles in loss to CowboysHardman heads back to Chiefs in trade with Jets

8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: PHI -1.5 (51.5)

Storyline to watch: Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts, former teammates and competitors in the Alabama quarterback room, square off for the first time at the professional level. They steward the top two offenses in the NFL in yards per game (Miami at 498.7 yards per game, Philadelphia at 395.0). This matchup will also feature the NFL’s top two rushing teams (Miami at 181.8 yards per game, Philadelphia at 150). — Tim McManus

Bold prediction: Miami’s defense will score a touchdown. The Dolphins’ three-game drought without forcing a turnover will end Sunday night. Hurts has already surpassed his interception total from last season (seven), and he and the Eagles are coming off a four-turnover game last week. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Stat to know: A big factor in Miami’s success is its volume and effectiveness with motion at the snap. The Dolphins have a player in motion at the snap on 60% of their plays, the highest rate by any team since ESPN began tracking motion in 2017. Miami has excelled on these plays as well, leading the NFL in yards per play and yards per rush, but the Eagles’ defense has defended motion at the snap well, ranking second in yards per play when motion is involved.

Matchup X factor: Dolphins defensive tackle Christian Wilkins. I’m still waiting for the talent of the Miami defense to yield results, but Wilkins is making an impact rushing the passer. In addition to his 3.5 sacks, Wilkins ranks fourth in pass rush win rate at defensive tackle. — Walder

Injuries: Dolphins | Eagles

What to know for fantasy: Wide receivers have scored the sixth-most fantasy points per game against the Eagles’ secondary. The Dolphins’ offense has been epic through the first six weeks of the season. Start all Miami players, including Tagovailoa, who leads the league in passing yards and touchdowns. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Eagles are 12-1 in games played in September and October the past two seasons, the best record in the NFL over that span. The only loss was last week against the Jets. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Dolphins 35, Eagles 30
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 30, Eagles 27
FPI prediction: MIA, 58.5% (by an average of 3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Ramsey practices after meniscus surgeryEagles about to enter toughest part of their schedule

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | Spread: SF -7 (44)

Storyline to watch: There will be plenty of focus on 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, who leads the NFL in QBR. But the matchup that will dictate whether this game is close will involve the 49ers’ defense, which is allowing an NFL-low 14.5 points per game. In their first game without injured receiver Justin Jefferson, the Vikings scored 12 offensive points and managed 4.0 yards per play last week against the Bears’ porous defense, both season lows. — Kevin Seifert

Bold prediction: Purdy will follow his worst professional game by throwing for three touchdown passes and more than 275 yards. The Vikings blitz at, by far, the highest rate in the league (57% of drop backs), but Purdy has repeatedly proved capable of making opponents pay for that aggressive approach. Since the start of last season, Purdy has a QBR of 81 against the blitz, which ranks fourth in the NFL. Combined with his 8-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in prime time, the recipe for a big bounce back is there for Purdy. — Nick Wagoner

Stat to know: The 49ers have not lost the turnover battle in 16 straight games, the longest streak since the Patriots did so in 21 straight across the 2011-12 seasons.



Why Tyler Fulghum expects points from the Niners

Tyler Fulghum explains why his favorite bet is the over team total for the 49ers on “Monday Night Football.”

Matchup X factor: Vikings right tackle Brian O’Neill. He’ll be charged with stopping 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa, but O’Neill might be up to the challenge. He’s playing great in pass protection, ranking second in pass block win rate (95%) among tackles. The Vikings need a lot to go right to beat the 49ers, and holding off Bosa is a big one. — Walder

Injuries: 49ers | Vikings

What to know for fantasy: Against the Browns last week, 49ers receivers were faced with man coverage on around 70% of snaps. That, plus losing running back Christian McCaffrey and receiver Deebo Samuel to midgame injuries, caused Purdy to score a season-low 7.7 fantasy points. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Vikings haven’t been a home underdog of 7 or more points since 2014. They and the Chiefs are the only teams to not to be such an underdog in the past nine seasons. Read more.

Moody’s pick: 49ers 29, Vikings 20
Walder’s pick: 49ers 26, Vikings 20
FPI prediction: SF, 69.8% (by an average of 7.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: 49ers hope Gregory can help boost pass rushVikings pass-rusher Davenport on IR with ankle sprainSources: McCaffrey avoids serious injury, could play on MNFVikings’ offense sluggish without Jefferson

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